HEALTH Project
Historic Extremes And heaLTH
This fundamental research project aims at determining meteorological,
environmental and health conditions that prevailed during the 18th
and 19th centuries, from historical archives
and regional model simulations.
Examples of climate influences on public health are numerous. Those influences
can be either direct (the climatic or environmental event creates a health
risk such as thermal stress), or indirect (the event creates conditions
that jeopardize crops, reduce water availability or quality, etc.). Their
consequences are increases in morbidity or excess mortality due to infectious
diseases, toxicity, food shortages and social unrest. While modern agriculture
is less sensitive to climatic hazard, episodes such as the European heatwave
in 2003 (associated with an excess mortality of nearly 15,000 in France
and over 40,000 across Europe) have shown that society remains sensitive
to extreme climate events. The ambition of this interdisciplinary research
project is to identify the causes of health crises in the modern era,
and to examine the role of climate and environmental stressors
Many and diverse epidemiological studies have demonstrated clear associations
between atmospheric pollutant concentrations and health risk (cancers,
heart and lung diseases). Such studies have also been carried out after
the 2003 heatwave in Europe. Yet, the documentation of causes of increased
death rate and the investigation of their connection with extreme events
(floods, droughts, heatwaves), climate variability and environmental change
has still not been undertaken in a systematic and quantitative way, and
over time scales that are sufficiently long for full evaluation of hypotheses
concerning causal links during history. A historical approach offers tremendous
potential to qualify and quantify the response of society to natural climate
and environmental fluctuations (Garnier 2010). We shall focus on the period
covering 1700 to 1900, which includes a number of volcanic eruptions known
to be associated with worldwide climate perturbations (including Laki
in 1783 and Tambora in 1815), and several extreme climate events (e.g.,
Witham and Oppenheimer 2005, Oppenheimer, 2011; Garnier 2012). A key aim
of this project is to use archives-based research to answer the question:
what were the medical factors concerned in cases where excess morbidity
and mortality is evident?
In addition, in association with atmospheric modelling specialists in
the Department of Geography of the University of Cambridge, we will evaluate
how aerosol emissions from the 1783 Laki eruption could have been transported
to England and France, in such a way as to be responsible for potential
health problems. A detailed comparison between regional simulations and
recorded observations will be performed.
The regional model simulations we plan to make will evaluate the European
climate impacts of tropical and lower latitude volcanic eruptions. The
health impacts of eruptions such as that of Laki, whose fumes were transported
to Europe via prevailing wind patterns, can be evaluated from estimates
of sulphate thresholds in the atmosphere. Those simulations can help predict
future hazard thresholds for European volcanic eruptions, given properties
of atmospheric circulation.
Context and significance of the work for society
Studies of the connections between climate, the environment and public
health have a long tradition in France. For instance, the “Aérist” movement
of the 18th century considered that diseases
had meteorological causes (Desaive et al. 1972). This movement was the
origin of the first European meteorological networks, carried out under
the auspices of bodies such as the Royal Academy of Medicine, the Royal
Society of London, and the Societas meteorologica palatina of
Mannheim. These institutions compiled meteorological measurements and
observations made by networks of doctors and European correspondents.
In addition, there are many other sources of data, such as the archives
held by Cambridge colleges (a preliminary survey has indicated numerous
diaries and records are available, for instance in the Archives of Addenbrooke’s
Hospital and King’s and Christ’s Colleges). Such records have yet to be
mined in this context and we believe they will provide a detailed local
picture that can provide depth to the regional picture established from
collated datasets. Further archives scattered in various public or private
collections in the UK will be investigated.
It is without doubt that climate and environmental fluctuations have had
health impact on modern societies. This project focuses on extreme cases
that have occurred in the past three centuries (heatwaves, cold spells,
volcanic eruptions…) and will evaluate their impacts on society, including
political and economical contexts.
The findings will have direct implications for understanding European
exposure to future extreme events, including an eruption similar to that
of Laki in 1783. A recent modelling study (Schmidt et al., Procs National
Academy of Sciences, 2011) has suggested that cardiopulmonary mortality
associated with a future Laky-type event could exceed 140,000 across Europe.
The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 provided a reminder of how rapidly
Icelandic volcanic emissions can reach Europe. This comparatively minor
eruption in terms of magnitude took European authorities and agencies
by surprise and exposed many vulnerabilities in existing risk management.
Relevance and wider implications
This project will investigate extreme events (climate and environmental)
in England and France. Such events are embedded in a historical context,
in particular in the socio-economic context of France between 1700 and
1900. They are generally recorded in archives because of the impacts on
society. Thus, the vulnerability of various societal strata can be directly
evaluated from such observations.
This archival and bibliographical heritage will be fostered through English
contacts with local and national administrations in the UK (e.g., Cambridgeshire
County Council, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) and
high level exchanges with archive and library centres (Archives of Addenbrooke’s
Hospital, Colleges of Cambridge, Cambridge University Library, Wellcome
Trust, The Royal Society, National Archives and Cambridgeshire Archives).
This heritage will increase the memory (and hence awareness) of climate,
volcanic and environmental hazards, and their socio-political contexts.
The risks to economic growth and the public health impacts attributable
to climate change and extreme events such as floods are clearly not only
of interest to scientists but also in the framework of policy-making.
Indeed, the requirement for policies to promote sustainability, resilience
and adaptation is enshrined within national and local planning policy.
For instance, the historical data to be studied through this project could
directly help a County Council which has a statutory duty as a lead local
flood authority to tackle flood risk as plans it the Government's summary
of new roles and responsibilities for local authorities1
. The background research has included a study of historical flood events.
We plan to collect observations of the health state of England and France,
in coordination with regional meteorological conditions. Those observations
include excess mortality or infectious diseases (e.g., malaria). In particular,
by focusing on the Laki eruption (in Iceland), we will better understand
the risk of a future large effusive volcanic eruption to public health.
Regional climate modelling is an issue for climate predictions, especially
around the Mediterranean basin, with its complex topography and high populion.
We will develop protocols for achieving long simulations of limited area
regional models, with a nudging and/or forcing from global models. Such
tools and methodology are also relevant for prediction of future climate
variations within the framework of the IPCC fifth assessment report. The
project is highly interdisciplinary, involving geographers, modellers,
historians and epidemiologists (Cambridge Institute of Public Health,
Academie nationale de medecine de Paris).
1 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/flooding/legislation/la-roles/
Coordinateur : Emmanuel Garnier
Laboratoires impliqués : Churchill College, Public Health Institute, University of Cambridge, Ambassade de France à Londres, Centre de Recherche d’Histoire Quantitative (UMR 6583 Université de Caen Basse-Normandie – CNRS).
Durée : 12 mois (2012-2013)